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A stochastic ensemble forecast model for geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1928/10842

A stochastic ensemble forecast model for geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes

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Title: A stochastic ensemble forecast model for geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes
Author: Nelson, Steven
Advisor(s): Gilmore, Mark
Committee Member(s): Simpson, Jamesina
Christodoulou, Christos
Department: University of New Mexico. Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Subject(s): Space Weather
Ensemble
Stochastic
Forecasting
LC Subject(s): Ionospheric storms--Forecasting--Statistical methods.
Atmospheric electricity--Mathematical models.
Stochastic models.
Degree Level: Masters
Abstract: A stochastic ensemble model composed of three functional forecasting models has been developed to forecast >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous (GEO) orbit. The REFM model is based on a statistical link between electron flux and solar wind speed using empirically derived linear filter coefficients, the Li model solves a radial diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that is a function of the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field, and the Fluxpred model is a multi-layer feed-forward neural network with electron flux and summed Kp as input. Individual model results were combined using a multivariate regression to produce significantly better predictive results than any of the individual models alone. A stochastic model is then developed to forecast the probability that a fluence threshold will be exceeded. The regression technique, model optimization, and calculation of forecast probability will be discussed in reference to the ensemble model.
Graduation Date: May 2010
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1928/10842

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